Short Presentation (6 minutes) Australian Marine Sciences Association 2025 Conference

A framework to assess trade-offs in environmental conditions and financial risk for offshore industry development (119778)

Jackson Stockbridge 1 2 , Caitie D Kuempel 1 2 , Christopher J Brown 3
  1. Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, Australia
  2. Blue Economy, Cooperative Research Centre, Tasmania, TAS, Australia
  3. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, TAS, Australia

Competition for ocean space is intensifying as nations expand offshore development to meet Blue Economy goals. Effective planning is essential to balance economic growth with ecosystem sustainability, whilst mitigating conflict between industries and community opposition to offshore development. We present a framework that evaluates trade-offs between environmental conditions and the risk of financial impacts to offshore developers. We combined existing wind farm and aquaculture suitability data—two rapidly growing offshore industries—with the potential financial impacts associated with an area. We apply our approach to Bass Strait, Australia, and compare three management scenarios: (1) maximising environmental conditions, (2) minimising financial risk, and (3) random selection. Our results reveal a nonlinear relationship between financial risk and area size, with disproportionate financial risks when prioritising environmental conditions that reduce economic viability. Our framework provides a practical approach to marine spatial planning, helping developers minimise financial risks while ensuring long-term economic and environmental sustainability.