Standard Presentation (12 minutes) Australian Marine Sciences Association 2025 Conference

Operationalizing and measuring climate change adaptation success (120658)

Henry A. Bartelet 1 , Michele L. Barnes 1 , Lalu A.A. Bakti 2 , Graeme S. Cumming 3
  1. University of Sydney, Forest Lodge, NSW, Australia
  2. University of Mataram, Mataram, Indonesia
  3. University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia

In a context of rapid global change, understanding whether and how adaptation to climate change can be considered successful has become an important research gap within the climate change adaptation literature. Although definitions of adaptation success have been formulated, it remains unclear how they can be operationalized and tested empirically. To address this gap, we operationalized one of the most prominent definitions of successful adaptation within the academic literature, which describes success as adaptations that support reductions in risk and vulnerability without compromising sustainability. Specifically, drawing on data collected from 209 coral reef tourism operators across 28 locations and eight countries in the Asia-Pacific, we explored how the risk, vulnerability, and sustainability outcomes that operators experienced one year after experiencing a severe climate disturbance (either coral bleaching or a cyclone) related to the types of adaptation they adopted in response to the disturbance. Compared to a control group with non-affected operators, operators affected by a climate disturbance were significantly more likely to have experienced an increase in perceived climate risk and reduced economic and environmental sustainability. However, our findings indicate that at least some adaptation responses were effective in promoting desirable outcomes, such as reductions in risk and vulnerability.