Changes to mangrove forests since sea level stabilised during the mid-Holocene have generally been related to natural processes. While it may be reasonable to start attributing mangrove distribution and condition changes to global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR), the reality of doing so is limited by the relatively modest GMSLR since industrialisation and the effect of interrelated processes influencing tidal inundation of mangrove forests. Projections of the influence of GMSLR imply retreat of the seaward mangrove margin with extension on the landward margin. Shore-normal transects along the Gulf of Carpentaria were established and the dense times series of NDVI and mNDWI archived in Landsat imagery were extracted to evaluate whether changes could be attributed to GMSLR. We found evidence of widespread progradation of the seaward margin but landward changes in mangrove extent were highly variable. Despite the extensive dieback of mangroves in recent years, including events in the early 1990s and 2015-2016, partial or even full recovery of vegetation extent and cover was evident in the years following. Observations of progradation or stability of the mangrove seaward margin over the past three decades are contrary to expectations and ongoing monitoring is required to clearly identify the effects of GMSLR.